Welcome everybody, and thank you for reading. The 2009 NHL Draft is promising to be one that is very deep in top end talent that will extend to roughly the top eight picks. After that, the talent level drops off a bit, and that level of talent lasts until about pick number twenty two. After that, however, there is not that huge of a drop off in talent until the end of the second round. Teams such as the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders that have multiple picks in the first three rounds are going to come away with a lot of high level talent. Compared to last year, I do not see as many trades involving first round picks. However, that does not mean that they will not happen. Expect the normal one or two spots trade ups/trade downs, with maybe one or two teams trading a few spots up from their original slot. Given the talent available in the top 10 picks, the teams possessing those picks will probably not want to part with them unless they are offered a deal that the GM simply can’t refuse. With only a week away until the draft, I hope you are as anxious as I am for what should be another exciting and interesting draft. Enjoy guys!
1. New York Islanders- John Tavares (C)
There has been a lot of controversy and hype about the top two prospects in the draft. Tavares has been touted as one of the top prospects for his age group since he entered the OHL as a 15 year old. However, Swedish phenom Victor Hedman, the towering 6’6” defenseman has also made a decent claim to be selected first overall. My opinion? The Islanders cannot afford to not take Tavares. Although I am personally a believer in building a successful team from the goal out, the organization needs a face for the franchise that will put people in the seats. Tavares can do just that. Although Tavares’ skating and agility have been criticized, his great hockey sense, superb stickhandling, and lethal shot do more than make up for his shortcomings. The bust factor exists, but I believe Tavares has what it takes to be a great player in this league.
Comparable: Mike Bossy
2. Tampa Bay Lightning- Victor Hedman (D)
This one is a no brainer. The guy can skate like Bouwmeester, has the on-ice presence of Pronger, and oh yeah, he can play some defense too. Victor Hedman, at 18 years old, is 6’6” and 220 pounds; I’m scared to think about what kind of player he will be 10, or even 5 years from now. The only knock on Hedman is that he can stand to use his body to his benefit more. His defensive awareness is top notch, and his skating and agility are tailor-made for the modern NHL. If he comes over from Sweden to play in the NHL next season, Hedman will instantly become the second best defenseman on the team, and could perhaps finish the season as the best when all is said and done. Not bad for an 18 year old defenseman.
Comparable: Chris Pronger
3. Colorado Avalanche- Matt Duchene (C)
Brampton Battalion forward Matt Duchene has seen his stock rise substantially in the past year. He is perhaps the best all around player in this draft. He really can do it all; skate, stickhandle, shoot, and play defense. Duchene may need to fill out a bit more from his 5’11” 185 pound frame, but I feel his explosiveness more than makes up for his lanky body. He is my personal pick to become one of the best players picked in this draft, and I believe that the Avalanche organization and their fans should be ecstatic to have him.
Comparable: Marian Gaborik
4. Atlanta Thrashers- Evander Kane (C/LW)
GM Don Waddell has publicly stated that Atlanta will pick either Duchene, Kane, or Schenn with their 4th overall pick. With Duchene likely off the board, Kane seems like the best option. After a rather average rookie season in the WHL as a member of the Vancouver Giants, Evander Kane saw his draft stock skyrocket as he nearly doubled his point total between the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 seasons, scoring 96 points. Although Kane is listed as a center, I feel he has more potential as a franchise winger than a center due to his size. This pick would surely appease Ilya Kovalchuk, whom is set to become an unrestricted free agent after next season. His speed and stickhandling are his greatest assets, but out of all of the potential 1st round picks, I feel Kane has the largest bust factor of them all. It still remains to be seen if whether or not his type of play will translate well enough to the NHL. If it does, watch out.
Comparable: Eric Staal
5. Los Angeles Kings- Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
Things can get interesting if the rumored deal sending Chris Pronger to LA is finalized in time for the draft. The preliminary reports are suggesting that LA would send Jack Johnson and the 5th overall to Anaheim in exchange for Pronger. If Anaheim indeed gets the 5th overall, I see them taking a defenseman. If LA holds onto the pick, however, I expect the pick to be Paajarvi. After the 2008 draft that saw LA take Doughty, Teubert, and Voinov, I don’t expect to see LA needing any big time defensive prospects any time soon. MPS has great speed, a good shot, and a hard, gritty style of play that makes him a very tempting prospect. Drawing comparisons to Markus Naslund and even the great Peter Forsberg, MPS has the potential to become the best forward to come out of Sweden since Henrik Zetterberg.
Comparable: Markus Naslund
6. Phoenix Coyotes- Jared Cowen (D)
Let’s face it Phoenix fans, the Coyotes are stacked with offensive prospects. With that said, the defensive prospect cupboard is very dusty and in need of some polish. Despite a devastating knee injury this past season, Cowen has a lot of tools to be a great defenseman. At 6’5”, he has a big frame, skates fluidly, and plays a sound positional game. In part to his knee injury, he is perhaps the riskiest pick so far in the draft. A couple of teams that have already picked may be kicking themselves for not picking this guy if he can come back strong.
Comparable: Ed Jovanovski
7. Toronto Maple Leafs- Brayden Schenn (RW)
Toronto would have already traded up to grab this guy, but I see very few assets that they could use to move up other than draft picks that they would be wise to keep. However, Burke may get his guy at 7 if he is patient. A hard working, two-way forward, Burke would love the opportunity to unite the Schenn brothers and have them play on the same team. It is obvious that a smart, gritty game runs in the family. Brayden has the same grit and intensity as his brother Luke, except he brings it on the forecheck rather than the defensive zone. I have heard comparisons to Jarome Iginla in reference to Schenn; if he can translate his scoring prowess to the NHL, those comparisons may not be too far off.
Comparable: Jarome Iginla
8. Dallas Stars- Dimitri Kulikov (D)
Recently, there have been trade winds regarding this pick, but I don’t see Dallas moving this pick. With Sergei Zubov poised for retirement, Dallas will go ahead and a defenseman that certainly has the potential to be a player like Zubov. Kulikov’s Drummondville coach in the QMJHL has stated that Dimitri is one of the best all around players he has ever coached. This is very high praise from a coach that has coached Sidney Crosby, among others. Kulikov is the prototypical puck moving defenseman that sees the game well and can make that breakout pass out of the zone very accurately. While Kulikov may not have the “superstar” flair associated with him, he certainly has the tools to be a very good player in this league for years to come.
Comparable: Sergei Zubov
9. Ottawa Senators- Nazem Kadri (C)
In my web surfing, I have encountered many opinions from hockey fans on message boards and mock drafts stating that the Senators will take Oliver Ekman-Larsson or another defenseman with their 1st round pick. I say WHY? Erik Karlsson was picked 15th overall last year and is a very good offensive defenseman prospect. Outside of the top line of Spezza, Alfredsson, and with the rumors of Heatley being shipped out of town as per his request to be traded, Ottawa lacks offensive prospects that can one day play on the top line. Although Kadri is a man’s hockey player in a boy’s body, he will grow into his skill set eventually. Playing for the London Knights, Kadri’s passing and speed are top notch, and was often a catalyst for the team’s offense before John Tavares was traded there mid-season. Similar to Kane, Kadri also possesses the bust factor, but I see him to be a very effective 2nd line center one day in the mold of Scott Gomez.
Comparable: Marc Savard
10. Edmonton Oilers- Zach Kassian (C/RW)
This is the point in the draft when I will say things will start to get very interesting. The Oilers have a very steady and rather crowded prospect cupboard in all positions. One thing that they lack, however, is a bonafide power forward prospect. Although some may consider this pick to be a little off the board, Kassian fills a void in the Oiler’s organization that has been absent since Ryan Smyth got traded. The only knock against Kassian is that he goes for the big hit more than he should, bringing himself out of position on the transition. If he pans out, he could be a very scary player to play against.
Comparable: Todd Bertuzzi (pre-incident)
11. Nashville Predators- Jordan Schroeder (RW)
This speedy and shifty player would ordinarily be a top 5 draft pick in the average draft, but I feel his 5’8” frame is scaring some GM’s away from taking him sooner. He is very smooth, skilled, and quick with the puck on his stick, and he has a high hockey IQ that allows him to know where to be in the defensive zone and away from the puck. More of a playmaker than a sniper, Schroeder would be a very nice addition to a Predators organization in need of offensive prospects. The million dollar question is how much longer Schroeder stays a Golden Gopher or if he decides to jump ship from the NCAA to the NHL. My bet is that he’ll play one more year in the NCAA, so I believe he’ll be with the NHL club sooner rather than later.
Comparable: Martin St. Louis
12. Minnesota Wild- Jacob Josefson (C)
Having played in the Swedish Elite League this past season, Josefson has an advantage in the sense that he has played against grown men in perhaps the second most competitive league in the world. Josefson had an average WJC tournament, but don’t let that fool you. Notching 16 points in his rookie campaign in the SEL, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a breakout campaign from him in the SEL as soon as next season. Although Josefson is listed as a center, he will likely make the NHL as a winger that will complement young centers Koivu and Sheppard quite nicely.
Comparable: Michael Nylander
13. Buffalo Sabres- John Moore (D)
Another fast riser in the draft, John Moore’s skating has many scouts drooling over this puck moving defenseman. Labeled by some scouts as the best pure skater in the draft, Buffalo continues to build from the goal out after taking Tyler Myers last year in the draft. Drawing comparisons to Scott Niedermayer for his seemingly effortless skating stride, Moore has a lot of promise if paired with a stay at home type of defenseman that will allow him to explore his untapped offensive potential. Whatever team drafts this young defenseman will have drafted a potential gem.
Comparable: Duncan Keith
14. Florida Panthers- Scott Glennie (C)
Although Florida is rather thin on defensive prospects, I expect Florida to go the BPA (best player available) route. Glennie’s speed, shot, and slickness with the puck, along with a 6’1” frame make him a very attractive top 15 pick, despite suffering from a broken arm that forced him to miss the last half of this past season with the Brandon Wheat Kings. Although Glennie was often overshadowed by teammate Brayden Schenn, he is a very good player in his own right. Don’t be surprised to see Glennie fall a few spots due to the aforementioned injury that he sustained this past season.
Comparable: Milan Hejduk
15. Anaheim Ducks- Oliver Ekman Larsson (D)
With an aging defensive group, Anaheim is surprised to see Larsson still on the board and takes him without much hesitation. Once considered to be the best defensive prospect in the draft behind Hedman around the mid-season rankings, the hype machine for OEL seems to have lost some of its steam in recent weeks. However, it does not take away from the fact that OEL is a good, mobile defenseman that is sound positionally and calm with the puck on his stick. His quick stick and awareness in the defensive zone make him especially exceptional at taking away the passing lanes for opposing forwards. This guy is a few years away from the NHL, but if he is not rushed and allowed to develop at his own pace, he may pan out very nicely. However, he is also not a sure fire hit to make the NHL; the bust factor is once again rearing its ugly head for this prospect, not for his talent level (I expect him to be a serviceable NHL’er at least), but for the fact that some scouts and GM’s are praising him to be a defenseman in the mold of Lidstrom, not exactly a small pair of shoes to fill.
Comparable: Nick Lidstrom if everything goes right, Marc-Andre Bergeron if not
16. Columbus Blue Jackets- Ryan Ellis (D)
I have thought year after year that Columbus was going to take a defenseman in the first round in the draft, and for two years in a row, I have been wrong. However, I think this is finally the year that they do it. Although Ellis is a supremely talented player with the puck on his stick in the offensive zone, his 5’10” lanky frame and positioning in the defensive zone have raised a few questions about if he will be able to use these skills in the NHL of get pushed around. Ellis is definitely a Brian Rafalski type of puck moving defenseman that is excellent in the offensive end, but he will have to bulk up and improve his defensive play if he wants to cut it in the NHL as more than a power play specialist.
Comparable: Brian Rafalski
17. St. Louis Blues- Carter Ashton (LW)
Although Ashton is a good all around player, there is no single defining characteristic in his game that separates himself from the other prospects other than his big 6’3” frame. He seems to have a good nose for the net; it’s just a matter of getting there. To no surprise due to his size, he isn’t exactly the best skater in the draft. St. Louis has a handful of excellent prospects either waiting in the wings or that have made their debuts with the club this season, so they can afford to let a prospect like Ashton develop and take the “wait and see” approach.
Comparable: Dustin Penner
18. Montreal Canadiens- Louis LeBlanc (C)
The 2009 NHL Draft is taking place in Montreal. After the rollercoaster ride that the centennial season was for the Canadiens franchise, the pressure will be on Bob Gainey to make a good pick for the benefit for the franchise. Recent drafting history has shown that Montreal has been partial towards players heading for the NCAA and those that have French Canadian blood lines. Look no further than Louis LeBlanc. This Harvard bound player that scored at a point-per game pace in the USHL has good wheels, good hockey sense, and plays very hard. No other characteristics of his game, similar to Ashton, particularly stand out to me. With that said, his ceiling is limited, but he is a safe pick to make the NHL in at least a checking line role.
Comparable: Michael Handzus
19. New York Rangers- Chris Kreider(C)
This Rangers fan initially had Peter Holland going to the Rangers in the 19 spot, but I reconsidered after reading that although Holland is a bright kid, he did not interview very well at the combine. In recent years, the Rangers have drafted players with good character that have fallen in the rankings to their draft slot. Kreider, on the other hand, interviewed very well, and seems like a very focused and leveled person. His 6’2”, 200 pound frame is a very nice feature, although a knock on him is that he could stand to use it to his advantage more. By all accounts, Kreider has an excellent shot, and according to one scout, if he were to enter the NHL today, Kreider, along with John Moore, would be among the best skaters in the league. However, since he has been playing with his high school prep team, he is untested against high level competition. Rumor has it that he is going to graduate high school a year early and head to BC in the fall. Since the Rangers scouts have reportedly gone to watch Kreider over six times, I have a suspicion that he will be the pick if he is still on the board at 19. The Rangers have done a good job for the most part drafting guys out of BC, one comes to mind; his name was Brian something…
Comparable: A bigger Paul Kariya
20. Calgary Flames- Peter Holland (C)
Calgary goes BPA here. With no real outstanding farm needs, Calgary takes the 6’2” quick center that is very slick with the puck on his stick. A very intelligent and calculated person and player, Holland can set up plays and also finish them. One knock on him is that he sometimes does not go into the high traffic areas as much as he should with the frame that he has. Holland also possesses some pretty dangles, but consistency is also an issue with this pick. This pick can pay out big time; he can be the Jeff Carter of this draft, but Holland can just as easily fizzle out. My prediction? He’s too smart of a player not to become at least a good 3rd line center.
Comparable: Poor man’s Jason Spezza
21. Philadelphia Flyers- David Rundblad (D)
The Flyers most pressing need right now is defense. After drafting Sbisa in the draft last season, the Flyers keep up with the trend of drafting quick, puck moving defenseman. Right now, puck moving defensemen are a hot commodity in the NHL. Being well equipped on the back end with quick moving players with a good outlet pass will be essential for future success. Rundblad is just that. He has the upside to be a team’s power play quarterback at the point, but how he plays in the defensive zone will determine how he pans out as a prospect.
Comparable: Francois Beauchemin
22. Vancouver Canucks- Landon Ferraro (C/RW)
The Canucks take son of former NHL star Ray Ferraro and hope that he can one day be as good as his father. Ferraro has a great shot, and although he is a relative lightweight at 6 feet and 177 pounds, he is very gritty and willing to stick up for his teammates. His skating is above average, but his upside at the NHL level is widely considered to be very limited. A project for sure.
Comparable: Ryan Callahan
23. New Jersey Devils- Calvin de Haan (D)
The Devils need a defenseman. One of the most pressing needs for the franchise has been a good offensive defenseman ever since Scott Niedermayer and Brian Rafalski left via free agency. In order to try and fill this void, the Devils take de Haan, a mobile offensive defenseman that has potential to the level that one scout described as “limitless”. Many things need to be worked out, such as his positioning in the defensive zone, and competitiveness. This guy can turn out to be a good one in the end. With that said, I would not be surprised to see a team picking in the teens take a flyer on him. When thinking of a potential ceiling for this guy, think Andrei Markov. If the Devils go with a forward, expect Kyle Palmieri to be the pick.
Comparable: Andrei Markov if everything goes right
24. Washington Capitals- Tim Erixon (D)
Considered to be the best defenseman for Team Sweden at the U18 WJC’s this past winter, Tim Erixon has both the bloodlines and talent of a 1st round pick. Son of former Rangers forward Jan Erixon, this very mobile and agile defenseman is a very good player in his own zone with unseen offensive potential. Washington always seems to find great value when drafting late in the first round, and I believe Erixon would be another solid pick that will continue this streak of good drafting.
Comparable: Mathias Ohlund
25. Boston Bruins- Stefan Elliot (D)
With a glut of offensive prospects in the system, Boston shores up their defensive cupboard with this pick. Another offensive defenseman similar to Calvin de Haan in playing style, Elliot is a very mobile offensive defenseman that has a great shot from the point that has the tendency to end up in the back of the net. His steady play in the defensive zone makes him a good value pick, but I feel that Elliot does not have the same upside that de Haan does.
Comparable: Kim Johnsson
26. New York Islanders- Zach Budish (C)
After drafting the face for the franchise in Tavares earlier in the draft, the Islanders can afford to take a risk with their second first round pick in the draft acquired from Ottawa in the Comrie/Campoli trade. You want to talk about a risk? Zach Budish fits the bill. The hulking 6’3” 220 pound forward has been widely touted as a top 15 pick in the draft if not for a football sustained injury that forced him out of action this past season. Budish is your prototypical power forward prospect. He is strong on the puck, uses and takes the body very well, and has a nice shot to go along with it. With a guy his size, skating is always a question, and it most definitely will be given he is coming off a serious injury.
Comparable: Corey Perry if he recovers from injury
27. Carolina Hurricanes- Dylan Olsen (D)
This mobile, puck moving defenseman is a good addition to the Carolina Hurricanes organization in need of defensive prospects. Olsen fits the bill of the typical Hurricanes defenseman that is able to play an up-tempo, quick, and “in your face” type of game. A player like Olsen that is fast and strong on his skates is sure to thrive on a team like Carolina if he develops according to plan.
Comparable: Tom Gilbert
28. Chicago Blackhawks- Drew Shore (RW)
Out of all of the US Under-18 prospects, Shore is probably the safest. Shore has a great all around skill set, though he is not spectacular in one specific category. This is sure to guarantee him success at the next level, though with that said, his upside is very limited, and is more likely to be used in a checking line or 4th line role based on the current developmental path that he is on.
Comparable: Mike Peca
29. Detroit Red Wings- Kyle Palmieri (RW)
After a good combine, Palmieri has seen his draft stock rise. A lot of character issues have been asked since Palmieri was allegedly kicked off of the US Developmental Team for off-ice activities, but his talent is something too good for Detroit to pass up. He works hard, has great offensive instincts, and plays well in the defensive zone. Sounds like a prototypical Detroit Red Wing to me.
Comparable: Dustin Brown
30. Pittsburgh Penguins- Jeremy Morin (LW)
During the past couple seasons, we have seen a revolving door of wingers being signed and used to play on the Penguins to play with Crosby and Malkin. I believe the Penguins are going to draft the first winger mainstay the team has had in a while. Morin has a deadly shot that he likes to use from almost anywhere in the offensive zone, and although questions of character and work ethic have been raised, he is too talented to not be picked by Pittsburgh at this spot. As a Rangers fan, it’s going to make me cringe seeing Crosby feed pucks to Morin and having him bury them in the back of the net.
Comparable: Poor man’s Thomas Vanek
After looking at least year’s mock draft, I almost got none of my 2nd round picks right, so I decided to forego the specific team picks for the 2nd round for this year. Instead, here is a list of players to look out for in the 2nd round, in no particular order:
Robin Lehner
Richard Panik
Toni Rajala
Tomas Tatar
Richard Panik
Olivier Roy
Ryan O’Reilly
Chris Brown
Jordan Caron
Nick Leddy
Ethan Werek
Ben Hanowski
Carl Klingberg
Erik Haula
Ryan Button
Matt Clark
Matthew Hackett
Edward Pasquale
Joonas Nattinen
Dmitri Orlov
Marcus Johansson
Simon Bertilsson
Anton Burdasov
Anton Rodin
Phillipe Paradis
Cody Eakin
Tomas Vincour
Brayden McNabb
Michael Lee
Alex Chiasson
Sleeper Specials
Andrei Kuchin (4th-5th round)
Alexander Fallstrom (3rd-5th round)
Jaroslav Janus (3rd-4th round)
Philip Samuelsson (3rd round)
Cassidy Mappin (4th round)
Tommi Kivisto (4th-5th round)
Henrik Bjorkland (3rd round)
Nikita Dvurechensky (4th round)
Eddie Larsson (3rd-5th round)
If you read all of this, congrats! Thanks for reading!